Regarding Ethan Horvath, who has had a difficult start to the 2024–25 Championship season with Cardiff City, the eye test results are consistent with the underlying data.

On the last day of the January transfer window, Horvath, who has twice seen his team, Nottingham Forest, and Luton Town, promoted from the second division in back-to-back seasons, left the Reds to join Cardiff.

Following an injury to Jak Alnwick, who missed the final three months of the previous season due to a knee ligament issue despite making an impression before Horvath arrived, the 10-cap USA international was promptly reinstated as Cardiff’s starting goalie.

During his first half-season with the team, Horvath made very few significant mistakes. That may have obscured the obvious flaws in the system, though, as he allowed in 29 goals from 16 games while facing an xGOT [Expected Goals on Target] of 25.7, conceding almost two goals per game and statistically underperforming.

Horvath was still given the starting gloves for Cardiff’s first four games of the new season, but Alnwick quickly took his spot, and the statistics support that choice. Erol Bulut made this decision two games prior to his final dismissal, and Omer Riza, the interim manager, has continued it.

Ethan Horvath’s 24/25 stats for Cardiff City

 

Three of Horvath’s four games in goal saw Cardiff give up two goals or more, including a 5-0 loss on the road against Burnley, who are expected to make the playoffs, in the second weekend of the new campaign.

Horvath’s disastrous mistake during the crucial trip to Turf Moor was undoubtedly the cause of the outcome. Horvath was receiving a clever back pass from Dimitros Goutas when he looked upfield to evaluate his options. However, he lost focus and let the ball slide past his foot and into the back of the net.

Horvath was picked and mostly kept the hosts at bay during Cardiff’s South Wales Derby away at Swansea City, despite loud requests for Alnwick to be given preference.

Though facing an xGOT of 1.00, the custodian did have some shaky moments in his handling of corners, and the following week he let in two against Middlesbrough.

Ethan Horvath may struggle to displace Jak Alnwick at Cardiff City

Horvath was benched for Alnwick during the international break in September, just in time for his team’s 1-0 loss to Derby County.

However, it has subsequently been shown that Bulut and Riza made the proper decision to move Alnwick back to the bench after losses to Hull City and Leeds United.

Against Millwall last week, in their much anticipated first league win of the season, Alnwick was perhaps Cardiff’s best player. He made a series of incredible stops in the closing moments to deny the Lions and preserve all three points in the Welsh capital. Even though Neil Harris’ team had a better xG (1.27) and xGOT (1.00) than Cardiff, Alnwick managed to preserve Cardiff’s first clean sheet in seven games.

In the Severnside Derby match on Sunday at Ashton Gate, he was hardly used at all; Bristol City only had two of their sixteen shots go in.