Data experts predict how the Conference League will unfold for TNS, Shamrock Rovers, Chelsea, and Hearts
It is anticipated that TNS and Petroub would be among the bottom three teams in the UEFA Conference League. (Photo: FAW/Sam Eaden)
A supercomputer has determined that TNS has just a 6.9% probability of making it to the UEFA Conference League knockout stages.
For the first time in their history, the Cymru Premier champions are taking part in a major European competition at the group stages. Still, their prospects of any improvement have been shattered by computer nerds.
Piotr Klimek and the Football Rankings Twitter account have collaborated to determine each team’s result in the league this year. With a 100% chance of placing in the top 24 and an 87.1% chance of being in the top 8, Chelsea would advance to the next round with a bye.
- Fiorentina predicted lineup vs. TNS: An overview of the former Everton and Manchester United star, AC Milan TNS is favoured to finish third in their opening match against Fiorentina this evening (October 3), with a 99.9% chance of advancing to the next round and a likely spot in the Round of 16. As for their other opponents, Panathinaikos is one spot behind Fiorentina, but there is a 26.7% greater chance of the Italian team finishing in the top eight compared to the Greek team. Djurgardens is the highest ranking, followed by Shamrock Rovers in 25th, Astana in 26th, and Celje in 27th.
TNS needs to place in the top 24 in order to advance to the knockout stages. Actually, the only two teams predicted to finish worse than them are Petrocub and NIFL Premiership Larne, who will finish third from the bottom.
In August, Petrocub defeated TNS in the UEFA Europa League qualifying round. The Moldovan champions prevailed 1-0 in the first leg, and Jordan Williams was sent off in a goalless draw at Park Hall.
The campaign has already begun, with İstanbul Basaksehir falling 2-1 to Rapid Wien and Portuguese team Vitoria SC overcoming Celje on Wednesday.
The only other British team predicted to advance is Scottish Premiership outfit Hearts, who play Dinamo Minsk in Azerbaijan tonight. It should be a close race as they are predicted to edge off League of Ireland champions Shamrock Rovers for the final slot, with Stephen Bradley’s team finishing 25th.
Predicted Conference League table (xPts, xGD, Chance of Top 8, Chance of Top 16, and Chance of Top 24)
Chelsea – 14.35, 13.82, 87.1%, 98.9%, 100%
Real Betis – 14.34, 13.07, 85.8%, 98.2%, 99.9%
Fiorentina – 14.03, 13.13, 82.8%, 97.8%, 99.9%
Panathiniakos – 12.12, 8.55, 56.1%, 89.1%, 98.6%
Gent – 11.87, 7.27, 51.6%, 89.1 %, 98.6%
FC Copenhagen – 11.75, 6.80, 48.8%, 85.3%, 97.6%
Heidenheim – 11.63, 7.12, 47.2%, 85.3%, 94.6%
Molde – 11.60, 6.64, 46.3%, 81.%, 94.6%
Vitoria S.C. – 11.36, 5.39, 42.91%, 78.9%, 93.6%
Cercle Brugge – 11.36, 5.39, 42.9%, 78.9%, 95.4%
Rapid Wien – 10.56, 4.88, 31.3%, 71.3%, 94.4%
Omonia Nicosia – 10.33, 3.36, 27.9%, 68.0%, 87.7%
Djurgarden – 9.84, 3.44, 23.3%, 60.3%, 83.4%
Lugano – 9.88, 2.27, 24.3%, 59.9%, 85.7%
Legia Warszawa – 9.57, 2.35, 19.3%, 56.9%, 85.0%
Istanbul Basakehir – 9.21, 2.21, 16.3%, 51.5%, 85.0%
LASK – 9.18, 2.19, 17.1%, 51.1%, 84.0%
Olimpija Ljubljana – 8.70, 0.70, 10.5%, 43.1%, 79.8%
APOEL Nicosia – 8.62, 0.60, 10.5%, 40.4%, 78.3%
St.Gallen – 8.55, 0.23, 9.3%, 38.5%, 79.1%
Pafos – 8.07, -.1.74, 6.2%, 31.6%, 72.7%
Jagiellonia Bialystok – 7.70, -.1.84, 5.1%, 27.3%, 66.3%
Mlada Boleslav – 7.57, -1.46, 4.8%, 26.3%, 64.8%
Hearts – 7.68, -.399, 2.8%, 25.0%, 65.1%
Shamrock Rovers – 6.89, -3.09, 3.9%, 20.2%, 53.9%
Astana – 6.17, -4.37, 2.0%, 12.5%, 42.8%
Noah – 6.35, -5.61, 1.1%, 11.6%, 43.6%
Celje – 5.92, -6.51, 0.4%, 7.4%, 35.0%
TSC Backa Topola – 5.71, -6.10, 1.1%, 8.4%, 33.6%
Dinamo Minsk – 5.09, -7.65, 0.5%, 4.6%, 24.%
HKJ Helsinki – 4.63, -10.22, 0.1%, 2.2%, 16.8%
Borac Banja Luka – 4.05, -7.86, 0.4%, 3.6%, 16.8%
Vikingur Reykjavik – 4.17, -9.70, 0.2%, 1.8%, 13.6%
TNS- 3.03, -11.95, 0.1%, 1.1%, 6.9%
Petrocub – 2.86, -12.30, 0.0%, 0.7%, 5.5%
Larne – 2.30, -14.77, 0.0%, 0.2%, 2.5%
(Featured Image: Sam Eaden/FAW)